Gartner: 2009 IT Spending Revised Downward

Well as the first quarter ends, the staff at CIO Update report on the latest analysis from Gartner regarding the direction of global IT Spending in their article Gartner Calls for Grim Spending Contraction. I guess you can tell from the title which direction IT Spending will go. It appears that the projection for 2009 based on the 1st quarter results is a decline of 3.7% in IT Spending this year.

The current global economic recession is affecting not only software sales but also hardware sales, IT Services, and telecommunications and this deterioration in sales will surpass the 2001 IT Industry downturn. The contraction in IT Spending is global; however the US and Western Europe will be hardest hit. Global Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) is forecast to contract by 1.2% which is the largest hit to the global economy since 1982. Government stimulus packages will not have any short-term affect and IT Spending is not expected to improve until global financial markets stabilize.

The report summarizes the expected end results due to this downturn as follows:

  • "The slowdown in IT spending will reduce new market penetration and will slow replacement activity.
  • The impact of reduced new penetration will be more strongly felt in emerging markets, while the impact of reduced replacement activity will be more strongly felt in mature markets.
  • Consumers and businesses will continue switching to lower-cost products, extending the life of existing devices and extending their current contracts and purchasing agreements."

 

Business Intelligence Will Be HOT in 2009

Nobby Akiha reports in SandHill.com on Gartner’s Top Ten “HOT” technologies for 2009. Included in this top 10 list is Business Intelligence (“BI”). Akiha lists the 10 predictions for BI and how BI will surge in 2009 and they include the usual suspects, “The Recession” and “Going Green”; however, the list also gives us some insight into the other salient issues that will cause the use of BI to swell in 2009. For the complete story read Nobby Akiha’s article 10 Predictions For Business Intelligence. Here is a short-hand version of the list:

1.       More Open Source Collaboration: Blogs, online communities, and social networking will help spur the development and use of BI tools.

2.       Rich Internet Applications (“RIA”) for consumers influence the Enterprise:  Workers start to demand the same web applications used at home for the workplace.

3.       The Cycle Goes from Applications – to – Users – to - Better Applications:  It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

4.       A Recession Fighter: BI provides the competitive advantage to analyze costs, margins, and channels to better gauge profitability.

5.       Green: BI assists in the allocation of resources. Plus, ‘going green’ fits with consumer sentiment and conserving resources conserves cash.

6.       Regulations are coming: In light of the financial melt-down on Wall Street, it is a foregone conclusion that the Feds will be writing more regulations and these regs will most assuredly require companies to retain and disclose data. BI will help with the data management.

7.       Globalization Increases Competition: BI makes it possible for business decisions to be more informed and in real time.

8.       Wider Access to the Analysis: Decision makers are enterprise wide and as BI gains wider adoption these decisions makers will have access to the informed analysis.

9.       Flexible Reporting: Siloed data isn’t much help to the enterprise at large. BI makes it possible for data to be scalable and viewable in various formats.

10.   More Open Source Deployments: These solutions will be customizable for business decisions.

 

Oracle Maintenance Fees Under Attack

Well, you just don’t mess with maintenance fees, or so we thought. In my career it has been my experience that a software developer, in particular, the large ERP Vendors, would be willing to grant some pretty large discounts on the licensing of their software. There would be a standard discount and this could be followed by a non-standard discount which could then be followed by a special one-time discount and so on. As long as we could think of inventive names for the next round of discounting and the business approvals kept coming, a savvy customer could get what appeared to be an incredible buy. So you might wonder how a large ERP vendor could discount the initial one-time license fee of their product 50% to 65% to 80% and above. The secret my friends (well it’s not really a secret) is that an annual maintenance fee was exacted as a percentage of the “net” license fee after the first initial standard discount. I remember when this maintenance rate was 15% and then it was raised to 17% and recently it has been raised to 22% by the big ERP vendors. It really doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that after approximately 4 ½ years the customer has paid for the software again. As long as the ERP vendor can receive their annual cash inflow from these maintenance fees on their customer installed base, these vendors will be willing to discount their license fees.

So what does a customer get for this annual maintenance fee? Since we are talking about software, any Director of IT will tell you that maintenance gives you access to the 24/7 help desk. But there’s so much more than the help desk. A customer will need access to the latest patches and fixes that are inevitable when dealing with software. Maintenance also allows the customer to receive the next version and/or release of the software. With the new higher maintenance rates of 22%, the vendors are providing more and more enhanced support in order to justify the higher fees.

However, it seems that the current economic downturn has made the untouchable somewhat vulnerable to attack. For a more in-depth report on this phenomenon read Barbara Darrow’s article in IT Channel entitled Oracle fees for maintenance and support under fire. In it she describes the sea-change in the attitude towards maintenance fees coming from the customer base. There are some reports that customers are switching their application servers just to avoid Oracle altogether. Another approach customers have been taking, but one fraught with pitfalls, is to forego maintenance completely.

“There's definitely been a significant spike in the percentage of clients pushing back on Oracle support rates or who have let support lapse," said Eliot Colon, president of Miro Consulting, a firm that specializes in license negotiations.”

As Darrow reports, one option customers are exploring is to limit their maintenance fees to only what is deployed (e.g. users, modules, functionality). But it looks as though Oracle will not capitulate and only offer an all or nothing alternative. When customers choose “nothing” they run the risk of losing out on new upgrades. Once they decide to reinstate maintenance, they’ll be hit with all back maintenance fees during the period they declined maintenance and also a reinstatement fee.

And still another option for customers is to use third party support. David Rowe, senior vice president of marketing for Rimini Street states:

“Take your existing bill for maintenance, cut it in half, and then cut it further, because we let you drop maintenance for modules you're not using, whereas vendors have some very tough policies on that.”

For further discussion on this topic see also:

 

SAP Partners with IBM and INTEL

Alex Goldman reports for InternetNews.com on two interesting collaborations announced recently by SAP in his article SAP Taps IBM, Intel to Cut Datacenter, SMB Costs. Here’s a brief synopsis:

Ability to create an in-house cloud:

The two giants have been collaborating since 1999 on this particular project. Although the product is not yet generally available, SAP and IBM demonstrated it at the CeBIT trade show. The idea is simply to spread SAP’s utilization across the servers in an enterprise which lessens underutilization of servers while also allowing for spikes in usage. This should be attractive to companies trying to get the most out of their current infrastructure. The technology demonstrated is based on the RESERVOIR cloud computing project. The goal is to make it easier for datacenters to be able to adjust their services to meet demand at different times. 

Xeon-based systems for SMB’s:

Another SAP announced partnership is with Intel. SAP’s Business One customers (i.e. SMB’s) are to be the beneficiaries this time. SAP plans to develop applications for use on Intel's 64-bit Xeon architecture. The end result is a faster deployment for SMB’s using Intel Xeon based systems.

The Green Effect:

The current “Green” craze is not lost in the two announcements above. The parties involved are proud to state that both moves reinforce the output of lower carbon emissions in customers' datacenters.

 

BlackBerry Bold; Stimulus Money for Broadband; and the News Media's Imminent Demise

In my reading and search for noteworthy events in the IT world, I have come across several interesting, but not necessarily connected articles. I thought I would list out a few of these to keep my readers apprised of these current events and what is or may be happening in the not too distant future. I’ll give you a very brief synopsis and provide the link to each article if you feel the need to dig further into the story. My selections (not in any particular order of importance) are as follows:

BlackBerry Bold Keyboard Is Hot

Judy Mottl reports that all sales of the BlackBerry Bold in Japan have been halted. It seems after the first week that NTT DoCoMo, Japan’s mobile carrier, received more than several complaints that the keyboards were hot. At present it is not a battery issue, just hot keyboards. Mottl puts an interesting twist in the article by listing out some component prices for the BlackBerry Bold. The highest priced component is the processor at $34.34 while the keyboard is listed at $1.85. For more on this see BlackBerry Bold too hot to handle in Japan.

Stimulus Money for Broadband

Kenneth Corbin reports that $7.2 billion of the total $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress has been allocated for broadband deployment. The National Telecommunications Information Administration (NTIA) will be meeting with ISP’s soon all looking for some of the approximate$4.5 billion the NTIA has to spend. The remaining $2.5 billion will be administered by the Rural Utilities Service (RUS) for broadband in the more sparsely populated areas. Corbin seems to buy into the Obama Administrations claim for transparency on the spending of these funds. His article is entitled Feds pressing forward with broadband stimulus plans.

The Demise of TV News

If you are as frustrated as me with the TV News, then Mike Elgan’s article Why Social Media is Killing (Bad) TV News is a must read. Elgan’s opinion piece is a no nonsense approach to the obvious bias and search for ratings and career boosting antics of the anchors. Elgan holds nothing back as he illustrates his point using CNN's Wolf Blitzer doing his clumsy ‘Situation Room’ shtick. Elgan is infuriated at the rehashing of the 4 top stories (as the editors see it) and suggests reporting on the top 20 stories. He presents a list of 5 things to do for TV News to become more timely and relevant while taking a swipe at the over-paid personalities delivering their own slanted opinions on what they have decided are the top 4 news items of the day. I disagree with one of his points though. In his third point he wants to do away with all opinion show personalities. He states the following, “Bill O'Reilly, Lou Dobbs, Sean Hannity, Jim Cafferty, Keith Olbermann, Rachael Maddow and their ilk — show them the door.”  I think we already have a system set-up for that. It is called ratings. As long as each opinion show personality makes it clear to the viewers that the show is an opinion show and not a “Hard News” show, I say let the viewers decide. Just in case you are not sure where Elgan’s true feelings lie after reading his 5 points, he concludes his article as follows:

“Of course, I don't expect the TV new media to do any of these things. The medium is the message, and the number-one objective of any organization is to blindly pursue the interests of the organization itself. TV networks need their advertising dollars, and believe that the only way to make money is to be phony, non-responsive propaganda machines that barely cover the news and spend half their time on self-promotion.

Fine.  Just don't expect me to watch. I'll be getting the real news on Twitter.”