Will Microsoft Emerge from the Economic Meltdown a Winner?
If you read Mike Elgan’s article in InternetNews.com, Get Ready for Microsoft’s Big Comeback, you will see that the answer is yes. If the Tech Industry doesn’t have any bailout money foisted upon it, much unlike our banking industry, then this market will do what all markets do in a capitalistic system, i.e. only the strong will survive. That is really what an efficient marketplace does with its competitors. But enough about me griping about the impending fascist state of this administration and in particular the all powerful Timothy Geithner. Let’s get back to Microsoft. Read Elgan’s article. He foresees the impending shakeout in the Tech industry and recognizes that the weak players will fade away and some marginal players will be swallowed up by bigger players. He also takes note of the past miscues in Microsoft’s marketing, the ever unpopular VISTA operating system, and its’ much ballyhooed legal struggles.
Although he mentions it in the subtitle to his article, it takes Elgan a while to get to the pile of cash that Microsoft has been hording. So let’s deal with the 800 pound gorilla in the room first before we get to the nuances of Windows 7 and Microsoft’s plan to leverage it and reclaim its’ reputation and continue to dominate the marketplace. Cash is King. Microsoft has an estimated $20 billion in cash on hand just waiting to exploit a downturn in the market. As for survival and emerging as the dominate player after the current economic struggle, see paragraph one above regarding “only the strong will survive”. Elgan posits that Microsoft could buy Yahoo, Facebook, Twitter, and Hulu all in the same year. He doesn’t predict such a sweeping acquisition scheme, but he does recognize the coming consolidation in the industry and that the cash-rich enterprises will act in their best interests and flourish.
And now for the nuances to their reemergence, Elgan sees Windows 7 as the vehicle Microsoft will use to recapture the glory days of the pre-1990’s debacles. It is not so much a four-step approach; but rather Elgan sees four categories where Windows 7 will dominate:
1. Netbooks: Mobile computing will kick into high gear. As Windows XP eventually will fade into the sunset, Windows 7 Operating System will be the operating system of choice and not the much beleaguered VISTA.
2. Touch Screens: The transition from mouse, icon, and menu to the mouseless touch will be slow, but Windows 7 is poised to take advantage when the switch gets into high gear.
3. Gaming: Growth in this sector will be exponential. Four categories to watch are i) console, ii) cell phones, iii) internet, and iv) desk top. Microsoft will dominate in 3 of the 4 categories, bowing only to Apple in the cell phone arena.
4. 64-bit Computing: Office 11 will ship next year in a 64 bit version and Windows 7 will provide the power boost needed for fast business computing.
Yes, Microsoft is smart enough to regain glory, however it is interesting to realize that is going to be through new markets, new ways to use software that did not exist before.
There is one important issue Microsoft needs to comfront, is the ability to offer a reasonable transition from the current way that Software Licensing is acquired and the future with cloud computing and SaaS.
Windows 7 will succeed becuase very few deployed Vista. XP is going out of support soon.