Year In Review: Another Top Ten List

 

Did somebody famous ever say “We won’t know where we are going until we know where we’ve been”? I did a quick Google search and could not come up with this quote being attributed to any person. If somebody did say this, then I’m borrowing the line for this posting. If not, then feel free to use it (but mention my name please). As my regular readers can imagine, I’ve been gone for about 3 weeks simply due to a very busy fourth quarter/year-end close. While scanning the internet recently for interesting and important information to bring to your attention, I stumbled upon a very interesting and thought provoking article in Internetnews.com by Kenneth Corbin entitled The 10 Most Important Social and Digital Media Developments of 2009. As I have stated in the past, I am a bit of a History Buff (What’s a Buff? See definition 2; enthusiastic, yes; knowledgeable, maybe). So I like to know the background of why things are as they are; and so I think it is nice to know what has happened in the past relating to technology in order to get a better understanding of where we may end up in the technological future. Corbin’s article is a gem. It informed me more fully of things I might have heard but should know more about. It reminded me of things that happened and how society dealt with it. It made me laugh (e.g. someone threatened to kill their cat if Miley Cyrus did not reinstate her Twitter account – really). And it made me wonder about the future. Here is a brief synopsis of Corbin’s Top Ten List peppered with my editorial comments. I hope I can do it justice:

#10.       Amazon.com’s Kindle will change the world: I read somewhere that the Invention that changed the world was the printing press. Well move over Gutenberg, the Kindle has arrived. In 2009 Amazon sold more digital books than printed editions. This e-reader will change the world. For an interesting take and a more in-depth analysis see Don Reisinger article entitled The Most Important Tech Product Is the Kindle, Not the iPhone.

#9.          Craigslist Killer: Some med student solicited an escort off of Craigslist and murdered her. The story was sensationalized due to the use of this new technology. As Corbin correctly points out, this story would have not garnered the attention that it did if the escort was solicited from the many personal ads or from the too numerous to mention yellow page advertisements.

#8.          Social Networking Sites Made Money: Facebook and Twitter, both a free service to their customer base of MILLIONS (yes I’m shouting MILLIONS) managed to figure out a way to make money. Facebook does it through advertising and the sale of virtual products; and Twitter did it by licensing the ability to add real-time content to Search Engines Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo.

#7.          Social Media in the Government: Is this a good thing? I don’t know. The Obama Administration seems to think so. They’ve done weekly addresses to the nation on YouTube and hosted online town hall meetings. There are numerous government websites and blogs.

#6.          The slow death of the Newspaper: Is this really happening? Are we really getting more (or most) of our news from the internet? What will the new business model turn out to be? Dare I say, do we need yet another industry bailed out?

#5.          Miley Cyrus deletes Twitter account: I honestly do not understand this phenomenon. Apparently there are millions of fans of all sorts of celebrities and Star Athletes that are interested in knowing and these Celebs/Sport Stars are interested in tweeting what they may be doing most hours of the day. Is this the downfall of our society? Well, it is at least another reason for it. Oh how I long for much calmer days and “Home Tweet Home”.

#4.          Social Web becomes target for hackers: Why do they do it? I don’t know. Some do it for the thrill of the “hack” and some are out to steal our identity. We put too much personal stuff on these social sites. Regulators and privacy advocates have fertile ground for their causes and activities.

#3.          The Twitter revolution in Iran: In June of the last year as Iranian authorities were cracking down on protestors, these same protestors began to twitter their cause, and when the foreign correspondents were thrown out, became the only source of hard data on what was really happening in the country. Corbin reports that the US State Department convinced the people at Twitter to postpone a planned power outage for scheduled maintenance just so they would keep the twitter lines of communication open.

#2.          The growing sense of urgency about information:  It seems that everything is about immediacy. We’ve got to have it real-time. 

And the #1 important issue that materialized last year relating to Social and Digital Media was VIDEO: The web is free and on-demand. How does one derive a business model out of that? TV Everywhere offers paying subscribers the option to watch content on the web. Hulu pulls content from sites, and its owner News Corp is thinking about making it a paid site. So is free TV over the air waves supported by its advertising (i.e. commercials) a thing of the past?

 

 

Will IT Vendors Weather the Financial Crisis?

 

Global stock markets are falling.  The price of a barrel of oil broke the $70/barrel mark on its way to $60 and maybe $50.  The $700 billion bailout (or rescue) package of Wall Street hasn’t seemed to take hold.  The Fed has opened up its discount window to all sorts of entities.  And yet amid all the financial tumult, Gartner sees IT spending for the coming year as slowing, but not stopping.

Richard Adhikari reports for Internet.News.com from the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando, Florida in his article entitled Gartner: IT Spending Will Grow, Just Slowly.  He quotes Gartner’s global head of research, Peter Sondergaard:

"In a worst-case scenario, our research indicates an IT spending increase of 2.3 percent in 2009, down from our earlier projection of 5.8 percent"

What makes Sondergaard so sure the growth, albeit slowed, will continue into 2009?  He cites three factors:

·         There is usually a 2 quarter lag in decreases in IT spending vis-à-vis the economy.

·         The shift to a multi-year approach to IT projects makes a cut implausible.

·         Top management’s realization that IT can help transform their business.

Sondergaard sees developing countries worst hit, with Europe posting negative growth, and the US and Japan as flat for 2009.

It seems that the need for IT will be a stabilizing factor in these turbulent times.  AFCOM is an association which is related to the datacenter industry.  Their study supports Gartner’s conclusion that IT spending will hold and might even increase in 2009.  Why?  Well, if the data center goes down, the whole business might go as well.  Read the whole story Datacenter Dollars Seen as Steady Spend.  The salient points in the datacenter industry to keep in mind for 2009 are these:

·         The downturn in the economy will spur a major growth in greening efforts because they have a payoff in savings.

·         The impact of datacenter budget cuts will reduce overall efficiency of operations in the entire company. When budgets are cut, new technologies don't come into play. Firms need to expand or adopt new technologies and won't be able to.

·         The downturn may spur increases in purchases when companies realize increases in their datacenter's effectiveness affects their company's survival.

·         A company's ability to survive in this economy is more than ever before dependent on the datacenter's performance.