Google Shocks: $12.5 billion for Motorola Mobility

 

It’s too early to go through all the possible iterations. Robin Wauters posted an announcement in Techcrunch on August 15th entitled “Google Buys Motorola Mobility For $12.5B, Says “Android Will Stay Open”. I’ll try to give you a brief synopsis and to put things into perspective; however, stay tuned as this mega-deal unfolds and as the players shakeout.

Google was sitting on $39 Billion in cash. Google owns Android and Motorola Mobility is a dedicated partner. Motorola Mobility is sitting on 14,600 patents and another 6700 patent pending apps. So the leading search engine and online advertising goliath is combining with not only a strong Android smartphone manufacturer but also the “market leader in the home devices and video solutions business”.

Google co-founder and CEO Larry Page stated that Motorola Mobility will “enable us to better protect Android from anti-competitive threats from Microsoft, Apple and other companies”. It remains an open question how HTC, LG, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, Acer, Lenovo and other Android device makers will handle this acquisition. Wauters gives us a link in his announcement to reaction already from some of these vendors.

Here’s the Full press release:

“Google to Acquire Motorola Mobility

Combination will Supercharge Android, Enhance Competition, and Offer Wonderful User Experiences

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. & LIBERTYVILLE, Ill.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Motorola Mobility Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: MMI) today announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Google will acquire Motorola Mobility for $40.00 per share in cash, or a total of about $12.5 billion, a premium of 63% to the closing price of Motorola Mobility shares on Friday, August 12, 2011. The transaction was unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies.

“Motorola Mobility’s total commitment to Android has created a natural fit for our two companies. Together, we will create amazing user experiences that supercharge the entire Android ecosystem for the benefit of consumers, partners and developers. I look forward to welcoming Motorolans to our family of Googlers.”

The acquisition of Motorola Mobility, a dedicated Android partner, will enable Google to supercharge the Android ecosystem and will enhance competition in mobile computing. Motorola Mobility will remain a licensee of Android and Android will remain open. Google will run Motorola Mobility as a separate business.

Larry Page, CEO of Google, said, “Motorola Mobility’s total commitment to Android has created a natural fit for our two companies. Together, we will create amazing user experiences that supercharge the entire Android ecosystem for the benefit of consumers, partners and developers. I look forward to welcoming Motorolans to our family of Googlers.”

Sanjay Jha, CEO of Motorola Mobility, said, “This transaction offers significant value for Motorola Mobility’s stockholders and provides compelling new opportunities for our employees, customers, and partners around the world. We have shared a productive partnership with Google to advance the Android platform, and now through this combination we will be able to do even more to innovate and deliver outstanding mobility solutions across our mobile devices and home businesses.”

Andy Rubin, Senior Vice President of Mobile at Google, said, “We expect that this combination will enable us to break new ground for the Android ecosystem. However, our vision for Android is unchanged and Google remains firmly committed to Android as an open platform and a vibrant open source community. We will continue to work with all of our valued Android partners to develop and distribute innovative Android-powered devices.”

The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of regulatory approvals in the US, the European Union and other jurisdictions, and the approval of Motorola Mobility’s stockholders. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2011 or early 2012.”

Intellectual Property Magazine - Cloud Computing: What In-House Counsel Needs to Know

 

Intellectual Property Magazine - Cloud Computing: What In-House Counsel Needs to Know

Intellectual Property Magazine asked me to write an article for their March 2011 issue. We discussed various topics and ultimately settled on the subject matter in the title of this Blog posting above. Our arrangement allows me to publish my work in my Blog. The graphics in the published article are really quite amazing. What follows is the text of my article minus the graphics:

 

Cloud Computing: What In-House Counsel Needs to Know

The only constant is change. I remember being at an Oktoberfest back in the late ‘80’s. My friends and I noticed a young man wearing a phone on his belt. We laughed and thought how self-important he must think he is. Well, I confess that today I do not leave the house without my Smart-Phone firmly attached to my belt. I can make and receive calls, send and receive emails, surf the net, and even take a picture if needed. The old adage “Change, embrace it” holds true in today’s technological environment. 

It is said that the speed of processing chips doubles every 18 months. There does not seem to be an end in sight in the growth in sales for the ubiquitous mobile phones. Apple’s iPad is all the rage and the Apple stores cannot keep them on the shelves. The number of applications to be written for all mobile computing devices in the coming year is staggering. So the next phase in innovation in this burgeoning IT industry is Cloud Computing. The term “Cloud” gives the concept a rather nebulous tone. Studies show the sales in the Cloud Computing marketplace have doubled in the last few years and there is no slowdown in sight. Let’s first define exactly what Cloud Computing is in order to rid ourselves of the uncertainty and then examine its advantages and disadvantages.

Cloud Computing – What is it?

Software as a Service, also known as SaaS or On-Demand, is the term most closely associated with Cloud Computing. The key word is “Service”. SaaS acts similar to a linked network of computers, or a cluster of linked networked computers, to perform different functions. This cluster of networked computers acts as a virtual supercomputer. Each person working on his or her own laptop computer is provided with the exact application they need to work and perform the tasks on their part of a project or to perform their assigned tasks in their area of work in the corporate entity. These applications are provided to that person via the internet. The user can work remotely and the applications needed are accessed by them from the internet through their web-browser. It is a seamless delivery system and it appears to the user that the applications are installed on their lap-top. The software and the data generated are not stored on the premises or the user’s own hard drive, but rather on shared servers at the vendor’s site.

What are its advantages?

The major reason usually given for Cloud Computing is that SaaS is faster to get up and running into a productive environment when compared to a full blown enterprise wide implementation and therefore a much less expensive alternative. Hand in hand with the touted speed to productivity is the claim that the enterprise can avoid the upfront capital expenditures for additional or specialized hardware that are usually required in most Enterprise Resource Planning (“ERP”) implementations. The servers are not on premises. It is a shared server array at the software vendor’s site. Since it is a service, the pricing is based on a per seat use rate and so the millions in the initial cash outlay for the software suite are non-existent. The theory is that the enterprise pays for what one uses and no more. Depending on the application, the pricing might not be exactly pay as you go, but a hybrid. The software vendor may have a subscription based pricing for the estimated number of users or hits required over a shorter period of time. This pricing model can then be adjusted as events require. Another advantage to this delivery model is that it is easily scalable and provides flexibility as projects or the enterprise at large experiences growth. Users, storage space, and upgrades to new versions and releases to the software can all be dealt with as the needs arise.

What are its disadvantages?

Security is the paramount concern. Where’s my software? Where’s my data? We have government regulations to adhere to. There are new banking regulations and new privacy rules. What about protecting non-public personal information? How do you assure me that my data does not get mixed up with another entity’s data? And the list can go on and on. 

How do we address these concerns?

Cloud Computing is inevitable. Given the centralized nature of Cloud Computing, security becomes more efficient. Instead of fighting the concept, it might be wiser to prepare for its eventual acceptance and implementation.  It is a good idea to train your IT department personnel for the change so they can have a shorter learning curve when the switch is made. One way to approach this matter is to initiate trials for your personnel by creating an innovation sandbox in the cloud. Contractually, this is the time when in-house counsel needs to lean on the “techies” on the business team. Actually both sides must feel comfortable with the solutions to the security issues. Let the business teams gather all the questions and all the means to address those concerns. Then it is the contract draftsman’s job to memorialize these areas of concern and the consequences into the contract to be signed if such matters are not met. 

The teams must agree on the specifications of how the data is to be isolated and protected. Include language that allows and mandates that the customer’s data is retrievable in a format that is desirable and safe. The ability to retrieve your data in the right format should be part of any Disaster Recovery language and the policies and procedures discussed and inserted into the contract. Your data should be backed-up periodically on a regular basis and copies of the back-ups should be stored off-site at another secure facility. Support levels and upgrades are part of the selling feature of any SaaS initiative and so these must be clearly spelled out in the contract, usually via a separate Support Schedule attached to the terms and conditions and incorporated by reference. In addition to clearly defining what is included in Support, make sure to have your team develop in conjunction with in-house counsel and the vendor’s team a Software Support Response Schedule for inclusion into the contract. Such a Response Schedule should have up-time availability percentages for the Productive System and a sufficient penalty if these availability percentages are not met. Do not be afraid to include tough penalties for failure to achieve the agreed upon up-time availability to adequately incentivize the On-Demand vendor to meet their promised availability times. These penalties usually are a dollar percentage credit to the customer’s monthly or quarterly use fees. The teams should work on clearly defining different levels of priority and the times to respond to such calls for support (e.g. Level 1 is Very High Priority due to Productive System Shutdown. Response time after reported is 1 hour).   The contract must clearly state that the vendor is SAS 70 certified and such certificate must be made available to the customer upon signing of the contract. It should go without saying, but verify that all of the promises made have been confirmed by a team from the customer by an on-site visit to the vendor’s facilities. The on-site visit should be able to confirm all the physical security claims and the policies and procedures discussed in the contract negotiations. Once the promised savings materialize due to reduced costs on maintenance and upfront costs for specialized hardware, the enterprise can use these funds and direct its efforts to more innovative ways of running the business.

Is complete surrender the only alternative?

Depending on the type of business your company is engaged in, considering the move to Cloud Computing and the nature of the data to be processed, the concerns over security might be just too high a hurdle to overcome. The new Privacy Laws and computer hacking and new government regulations sometimes present an insurmountable obstacle.  Another approach is to perform a cost benefit analysis of just certain parts of your business and the results might make the transition to Cloud Computing more palatable. On-demand service providers, another name of SaaS software vendors, are coming up with hybrid delivery approaches to Cloud Computing. If the enterprise has a myriad of smaller customer interfacing transactions at a multitude of cites, why not make use of the Cloud with all its advantages of scalability and pricing based on use while leaving the more sensitive data processed and stored on premises in a single tenancy traditional approach. This allows the enterprise to take advantage of the cost savings of using Cloud Computing while still maintaining the integrity of the more sensitive data stored on premises.

Where do we go from here?

The worldwide recession has kept the lid on software vendors raising prices. But this economic downturn cannot last forever. During this time, there has been a consolidation of software developers in the ERP industry. In April 2009 Oracle purchased Sun Microsystems. This purchase alone gave Oracle, one of the prime players in the ERP market space, access to not only Sun’s premiere hardware capabilities, but also the keys to some of Sun’s stalwart software applications, most importantly the Java programming language. Along with Oracle’s purchase of Sun came the Solaris operating system asset as well. With all the assets of the Sun Microsystems purchase, including both the software and hardware, Oracle has placed itself in a position to provide the foundation to build its SaaS and Cloud Computing services. 

SAP, who has been partnering with IBM since the late 90’s, plans on developing along with IBM a product that will facilitate the creation of an in-house cloud. SAP’s new endeavor, the “Reservoir” cloud computing project’s aim is to spread the utilization of requested applications across the enterprise’s servers thus addressing under utilization and spikes in usage.

Intel, the world’s prime chip manufacturer, purchased McAfee, a leader in network security industry. With this purchase Intel hopes to integrate security directly into the architecture of its chip. If this is accomplished, Intel’s potential to enter such new markets as network security, smart phones, and PC tablets is boundless.  

Google, purveyor of the prime search engine of choice, has recreated itself into a vendor of mobile devices, operating systems, and Cloud Computing. Other big IT players such as CISCO, IBM, and HP, now flush with cash and seeing the impending paradigm shift in the industry, have gone on a shopping spree purchasing unified communications vendors, and network security companies, and business intelligence vendors. Oddly enough all of these companies apparently are perceived as being outside of the acquirer’s original area of expertise.  

With this consolidation in the market many of the potential ERP customer’s choices will be eroded as only a handful of ERP vendors will remain. It’s a fair assumption that prices will be on the rise. Your IT budgeters should expect the need to request increases in funding for the usual items that accompany an ERP Business Suite purchase such as increased costs for support, higher rates for users, and the ever burdensome costs of a full blown enterprise wide implementation with all its foibles and miscues.   One way to counteract the consolidation in the ERP market space is to examine the alternative methods for deployment of the needed IT services. Cloud Computing, Software as a Service, a hybrid approach, or Managed Services are options your IT department should be considering. As I have discussed the insurmountable hurdles to Cloud Computing can be overcome. With the right contracting model, adequate assurances and protections, along with sufficient penalties to incentivize adherence to agreed upon terms of protection, Cloud Computing can be the viable alternative for your IT department. Change is coming. Embrace it.

Epilogue : My editor asked me to develop a “To Do” list for the readers. The graphics in the published piece consist of a yellow legal pad with the following bullet points:

To-do-list

·         When implementing cloud computing, it is a good idea to train your IT department personnel for the change so they can have a shorter learning curve when the switch is made. 

·         In addition to clearly defining what is included in support, make sure to have your team develop in conjunction with in-house counsel and the vendor’s team a software support response schedule for inclusion into the contract.

·         The contract must clearly state that the vendor is SAS 70 certified and such certificate must be made available to the customer upon signing of the contract.

·         Make use of the cloud with its advantages of scalability and pricing based on use while leaving the more sensitive data processed and stored on premises in a single tenancy traditional approach. 

 

The Paradigm Shift in IT Continues: Intel Buys McAfee

 

I highly recommend Larry Barrett’s August 20th article in CIO Update entitled Intel’s McAfee Buy Latest Sign of Sea Change in IT. In the second half of his article Barrett discusses how Intel’s acquisition of McAfee opens the door for Intel to become a key player in the mobile device and network security markets. I will discuss some of his key points later in this posting.  However, what I found most interesting is his discussion in the first half of his article where he describes quite adroitly and with relative ease his perception of the “Sea Change” in the IT industry. Barrett lays out the salient points in rapid fire succession based on his perception that the arrival of wireless networks, smartphones, and the “consumers’ unquenchable thirst for mobile devices” has sparked an acquisition frenzy amongst the big IT players who have plenty of cash on reserve. For example, Google has gone from the prime search engine vendor to mobile devices, operating systems, Cloud Computing, and SaaS. He mentions Cisco Systems, IBM, and HP purchasing unified communications, network security, and business intelligence companies, all of these companies apparently outside of the acquirer’s original area of expertise.

And now Intel’s Security on a Chip:

This acquisition takes Intel in a totally different direction from its core business. Gartner security analyst, Peter Firstbrook, doesn’t believe you can build security on a chip:

"Security is dependent on the OS and the apps in the stack. You can't anticipate that in the chip."

However others are not so skeptical. They see the potential that exists for Intel to enter a whole array of markets from network security, to smartphones, to PC tablets, to the myriad of hardware and software these markets create. Intel CEO, Paul Otellini, stated that the purchase of McAfee and bringing security to the chip was

“not just the opportunity to co-sell but also the opportunity to deeply integrate into the architecture of our products."

 

Public vs. Private Cloud Computing: A Decade Long Look

 

Rob Ederle in his article in Datamation.com entitled 2010: The Year and Decade of the Cloud has an interesting theory on the circuitous nature of the computing populace and the nature of the industries that feed into this arena.  Enderle surmises that we have come, or will be coming, full circle in our approach to computing in this second decade of the 21st century. He notes that we started this journey with huge centralized computing and dumb terminals, and now with the surge in growth of Smartphones and Smartbooks, we may be headed back to that original configuration, but this time in “The Cloud”. Enderle’s advice for companies to survive is to change their approach of how they view the market. Larger vendors ensconced in the large systems approach may have a leg-up on their competitors who were more user-focused; however, these larger vendors must accommodate these user’s demands or risk alienating them. Similarly, the more user-centric vendors must adopt the large centralized systems approach or be left behind. Enderle foresees the most likely way these vendors, large systems vendors and more user-centric vendors, will survive and evolve is through partnerships. He predicts Google as a likely survivor if this decade of cloud computing pans out the way he envisions it.

Ederle gives us a quick definition of what he calls Services-Based Computing, otherwise known as “The Cloud”. He takes a retro look back and states that is what IBM started. I’m not sure if I buy a direct correlation to what was the IBM leasing/services model and what the new cloud computing will become, but I at least understand where he is going with this perspective.

Ederle’s article makes an interesting observation and distinguishes between “Public” cloud computing and “Private” cloud computing. It is easy to guess, and Ederle’s article is quite clear, that the Public brand of cloud computing would be lower cost while the Private brand will be more concerned with security, but at a higher cost.  As a neophyte when it comes to cloud computing (well I guess most of us are neophytes at this point in time), I am not sure I can make the distinction between Private cloud computing and a Managed Hosting arrangement, or is this a distinction without a difference? Further in his article there is a discussion how the enterprise vendor (i.e. the large centralized systems vendor) must meld its strategic efficiencies with the more user-centric vendors who have the knack for responding to the needs of the line managers who have become the new decision makers when it comes to technology spending.

Ederle’s solution, or at least his prediction, is that companies will need to form partnerships with each partner having the right mix of Public and Private components. He concludes his article by stating that the companies that exit the new decade of cloud computing will not resemble anything like they were when they entered this new decade.

 

Year In Review: Another Top Ten List

 

Did somebody famous ever say “We won’t know where we are going until we know where we’ve been”? I did a quick Google search and could not come up with this quote being attributed to any person. If somebody did say this, then I’m borrowing the line for this posting. If not, then feel free to use it (but mention my name please). As my regular readers can imagine, I’ve been gone for about 3 weeks simply due to a very busy fourth quarter/year-end close. While scanning the internet recently for interesting and important information to bring to your attention, I stumbled upon a very interesting and thought provoking article in Internetnews.com by Kenneth Corbin entitled The 10 Most Important Social and Digital Media Developments of 2009. As I have stated in the past, I am a bit of a History Buff (What’s a Buff? See definition 2; enthusiastic, yes; knowledgeable, maybe). So I like to know the background of why things are as they are; and so I think it is nice to know what has happened in the past relating to technology in order to get a better understanding of where we may end up in the technological future. Corbin’s article is a gem. It informed me more fully of things I might have heard but should know more about. It reminded me of things that happened and how society dealt with it. It made me laugh (e.g. someone threatened to kill their cat if Miley Cyrus did not reinstate her Twitter account – really). And it made me wonder about the future. Here is a brief synopsis of Corbin’s Top Ten List peppered with my editorial comments. I hope I can do it justice:

#10.       Amazon.com’s Kindle will change the world: I read somewhere that the Invention that changed the world was the printing press. Well move over Gutenberg, the Kindle has arrived. In 2009 Amazon sold more digital books than printed editions. This e-reader will change the world. For an interesting take and a more in-depth analysis see Don Reisinger article entitled The Most Important Tech Product Is the Kindle, Not the iPhone.

#9.          Craigslist Killer: Some med student solicited an escort off of Craigslist and murdered her. The story was sensationalized due to the use of this new technology. As Corbin correctly points out, this story would have not garnered the attention that it did if the escort was solicited from the many personal ads or from the too numerous to mention yellow page advertisements.

#8.          Social Networking Sites Made Money: Facebook and Twitter, both a free service to their customer base of MILLIONS (yes I’m shouting MILLIONS) managed to figure out a way to make money. Facebook does it through advertising and the sale of virtual products; and Twitter did it by licensing the ability to add real-time content to Search Engines Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo.

#7.          Social Media in the Government: Is this a good thing? I don’t know. The Obama Administration seems to think so. They’ve done weekly addresses to the nation on YouTube and hosted online town hall meetings. There are numerous government websites and blogs.

#6.          The slow death of the Newspaper: Is this really happening? Are we really getting more (or most) of our news from the internet? What will the new business model turn out to be? Dare I say, do we need yet another industry bailed out?

#5.          Miley Cyrus deletes Twitter account: I honestly do not understand this phenomenon. Apparently there are millions of fans of all sorts of celebrities and Star Athletes that are interested in knowing and these Celebs/Sport Stars are interested in tweeting what they may be doing most hours of the day. Is this the downfall of our society? Well, it is at least another reason for it. Oh how I long for much calmer days and “Home Tweet Home”.

#4.          Social Web becomes target for hackers: Why do they do it? I don’t know. Some do it for the thrill of the “hack” and some are out to steal our identity. We put too much personal stuff on these social sites. Regulators and privacy advocates have fertile ground for their causes and activities.

#3.          The Twitter revolution in Iran: In June of the last year as Iranian authorities were cracking down on protestors, these same protestors began to twitter their cause, and when the foreign correspondents were thrown out, became the only source of hard data on what was really happening in the country. Corbin reports that the US State Department convinced the people at Twitter to postpone a planned power outage for scheduled maintenance just so they would keep the twitter lines of communication open.

#2.          The growing sense of urgency about information:  It seems that everything is about immediacy. We’ve got to have it real-time. 

And the #1 important issue that materialized last year relating to Social and Digital Media was VIDEO: The web is free and on-demand. How does one derive a business model out of that? TV Everywhere offers paying subscribers the option to watch content on the web. Hulu pulls content from sites, and its owner News Corp is thinking about making it a paid site. So is free TV over the air waves supported by its advertising (i.e. commercials) a thing of the past?

 

 

Droid: Can Verizon Topple AT&T with the Newest Smartphone by Motorola

 

 

Well, by now you probably have seen the commercials. The first commercial began with a children’s lullaby playing in the background as a series of “i don’t” phrases appeared on a whiteboard. This was just enough to catch one’s curiosity when the final “i don’t” phrase dissolves into an eerie Sci-Fi fuzzy screen and a voice is heard announcing the coming of Droid. As a fighter pilot wannabe, the second commercial was much more to my liking. A squadron of what look to be 2nd or 3rd generation stealth fighter-bombers is flying in formation when the order is given to release the pods. A shower of what appears to be meteors fills the skies. Upon impact the locals gather around each crater and the pods begin to open when the background voice announces the arrival of Droid.

Last Friday Verizon’s iPhone killer went on sale. Motorola’s Droid has a mobile open source platform on the Verizon network. Michelle Megna reports for Internetnews.com on the impending battle between Apple, the maker of the iPhone, and the PC community in her article entitled Droid First Step in iPhone Fade Away?. Megna quotes Tim McLaughlin, CEO of Siteworx, a mobile app and Web development company,

"History shows that unlike Apple, PCs gathered the ecosystem of profitable companies, such as Dell and IBM, thanks to its open technology. Apple, however, only develops systems that benefit itself. It all comes down to economics, and the only company interested in making the iPhone ubiquitous is Apple. On the other hand, you have Google, Verizon, Motorola, all these big companies together, the cumulative market value is huge. You put all of those resources together, and even though it's less effective because it's not centralized like Apple, it will still have a huge impact"

Brad Reed and Matt Hamblen have done their due diligence research on the product and have come up with a nifty review in their article for Computerworld entitled Four reasons to buy (and one reason to avoid) the Droid. I’ll try to provide a brief summary of their five points:

1.       Droid is the strongest device on the Verizon Network with the following three characteristics:

a.       Mobile browsing capability

b.      A very good voice recognition functionality

c.       The largest 3G data coverage network of Verizon

2.       The Google connection: The open platform will stimulate development of new apps and allow users to switch to new carriers while maintaining the same device.

3.       Ability to run two applications simultaneously: iPhone can’t do it. Once Droid develops the appropriate security features, then Blackberry will need to pay attention as Droid could become the device of choice for the enterprise user.

4.       Connection to the internet through Wi-Fi: Also use of the same processor as the iPhone will allow a fast and smooth browsing experience.

5.       AND the one reason to avoid this device is the keyboard: Droid has the touchscreen capability, but in order to get that feel of hitting the keys, they have also developed a slide-out keyboard. This feature allows enough room for a larger display screen. Reed and Hamblen report that users do not get the same feel with this shallow keyboard.

 

IBM and SAP vs. Oracle and Sun: Let the Speculation Begin

 

In light of the recent mega-acquisition of Sun Microsystems by IT titan Oracle, the rumor mill has begun to turn. As a follow-on to my posting in this Blog last week dated May 11, 2009 entitled Oracle Purchase of Sun: “A Game Changer”, I have found two article’s that my readers may find of interest. Here is a brief synopsis of each:

An IBM marriage to SAP:

CNNMoney.com posted a Fortune Magazine article from their Tech Daily by senior writer Jon Fortt entitled IBM-SAP combo not in the cards – exec. In it CEO Sam Palmisano’s spokesman lays out why such an acquisition is unlikely. I cannot help my flair for the melodramatic and immediately what comes to mind is that old line from some film noir movie “Your lips say no, but your eyes says yes”. Some of the points for such a purchase are:

  • IBM’s Websphere, DB2, and Cognos provide the foundation for SAP’s business apps.
  • IBM is one of the few (Google and Microsoft notwithstanding) that could afford the $50 billion  SAP market value plus a premium.
  • Such a combination could in essence provide all the software an enterprise could need.
  • Others (e.g. Oracle / Sun) have embarked on this portfolio strategy.

IBM’s retort to the above is a recognition to tread softly as not to upset their existing partnership relations. I’m afraid I’m reminded of yet another famous line (with apologies to the Shakespearean aficionados – if I may be allowed a bit of poetic license) Methinks he doth protest too much. { The original line "The lady doth protest too much, methinks” is from Hamlet Act III Scene II. Queen Gertrude, not realizing that Hamlet has staged this play within a play to trap her and her husband whom Hamlet suspects of having murdered his father, speaks these famous words to her son, Prince Hamlet.  See answers at yahoo.com --- but I digress}

Oracle could play the old IBM trick: 

To continue on with the “speculation” theme of this posting, Rob Enderle examines  the aforementioned mega-acquisition and comes up with an interesting strategy in his article in InternetNews.com How Oracle-Sun Could Use Google to Become the New IBM. Apparently, back in the 60’s when IBM was king, IBM locked in its customer base by bundling software with the lease / purchase of its hardware. Enderle posits that Oracle stand this strategy on its head and proposes that Oracle bundle its software and services with the Sun Hardware and this time it is the hardware that is the free commodity (or close to it) and not the software as was the case for IBM in the 60’s. Enderle has an analysis on UNIX and Linux and how Java is “a bone fide platform in its own right”, but I will have to leave it to you to grasp the nuance, since I cannot. The missing element to this strategy is the desktop component. Enderle closes the loop in this strategy with an Oracle – Google alliance (if this is possible) and has Oracle emerge as the new IBM. Such an alliance seems improbable, but worth the mention.

 

 

What's Next for ERP in 2008

As customers demand more from Web 2.0 applications and software vendors scramble to meet these demands, we should expect to see more mergers.  The assembling of such technologies as “instant messaging, Web conferencing, email, desk phone, mobile phone, blogs, and RSS feeds” has proven to be an overwhelming task.  A way to provide such technologies without losing some of the functionality which makes these technologies so appealing is to merge or purchase smaller niche companies that have the new emerging technologies already in hand.  Larry Barrett in his article in InternetNews.com reports on the most likely scenarios to come in 2008.  The companies to watch will be those with established expertise in data management, business intelligence and analytics and security.  The candidates include Informatica and i2 Technologies.  Regarding this anticipated consolidation, Barrett cites HP’s CEO Mark Hurd:

“I think you'll see continued industry consolidation and see more and more vertical integration.  It could accelerate in the next year or two if the right alignment of players were to occur ... I think potential M&A opportunities will rise to the top.”

And what about the big players in the ERP arena?  Is a purchase of SAP a possibility?  SAP’s co-founder and chief of its supervisory board left the door open a bit when he responded to such an occurrence by the likes of IBM, Microsoft, or Google stating, “If shareholders think that a combination, and not independence, is better, then it will happen.”  Barrett points out some of the key factors involved in any proposed merger with the world’s largest business applications vendor: 

  • SAP’s market cap is $63 billion.  Microsoft would be an expected suitor.  It has the money.  The antitrust issues would require Herculean efforts and thus make such a combination unlikely.

  • Google could afford it, but the corporate cultures are so divergent that this is a limiting factor.

  • IBM seems to be the one.

Barrett cites Peter Goldmacher, an analyst with Cowen & Co.

“As big as SAP is, they're becoming a niche vendor and I think Oracle is hurting them and hurting IBM.  Both of these guys need each other.  And there's not a better fit. You'd have the No. 1 applications company and No. 2 database company competing against Oracle, which is No. 2 in applications and No. 1 in database.”

Does anyone really think that Oracle’s Larry Ellison will just sit idle and watch this all happen?  To read an interesting article and get a sneak peek at what other types of companies have caught the eye of Venture Capitalists as well as the large enterprise software companies check out Larry Barrett’s article in InternetNews.com.