Year In Review: Another Top Ten List

 

Did somebody famous ever say “We won’t know where we are going until we know where we’ve been”? I did a quick Google search and could not come up with this quote being attributed to any person. If somebody did say this, then I’m borrowing the line for this posting. If not, then feel free to use it (but mention my name please). As my regular readers can imagine, I’ve been gone for about 3 weeks simply due to a very busy fourth quarter/year-end close. While scanning the internet recently for interesting and important information to bring to your attention, I stumbled upon a very interesting and thought provoking article in Internetnews.com by Kenneth Corbin entitled The 10 Most Important Social and Digital Media Developments of 2009. As I have stated in the past, I am a bit of a History Buff (What’s a Buff? See definition 2; enthusiastic, yes; knowledgeable, maybe). So I like to know the background of why things are as they are; and so I think it is nice to know what has happened in the past relating to technology in order to get a better understanding of where we may end up in the technological future. Corbin’s article is a gem. It informed me more fully of things I might have heard but should know more about. It reminded me of things that happened and how society dealt with it. It made me laugh (e.g. someone threatened to kill their cat if Miley Cyrus did not reinstate her Twitter account – really). And it made me wonder about the future. Here is a brief synopsis of Corbin’s Top Ten List peppered with my editorial comments. I hope I can do it justice:

#10.       Amazon.com’s Kindle will change the world: I read somewhere that the Invention that changed the world was the printing press. Well move over Gutenberg, the Kindle has arrived. In 2009 Amazon sold more digital books than printed editions. This e-reader will change the world. For an interesting take and a more in-depth analysis see Don Reisinger article entitled The Most Important Tech Product Is the Kindle, Not the iPhone.

#9.          Craigslist Killer: Some med student solicited an escort off of Craigslist and murdered her. The story was sensationalized due to the use of this new technology. As Corbin correctly points out, this story would have not garnered the attention that it did if the escort was solicited from the many personal ads or from the too numerous to mention yellow page advertisements.

#8.          Social Networking Sites Made Money: Facebook and Twitter, both a free service to their customer base of MILLIONS (yes I’m shouting MILLIONS) managed to figure out a way to make money. Facebook does it through advertising and the sale of virtual products; and Twitter did it by licensing the ability to add real-time content to Search Engines Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo.

#7.          Social Media in the Government: Is this a good thing? I don’t know. The Obama Administration seems to think so. They’ve done weekly addresses to the nation on YouTube and hosted online town hall meetings. There are numerous government websites and blogs.

#6.          The slow death of the Newspaper: Is this really happening? Are we really getting more (or most) of our news from the internet? What will the new business model turn out to be? Dare I say, do we need yet another industry bailed out?

#5.          Miley Cyrus deletes Twitter account: I honestly do not understand this phenomenon. Apparently there are millions of fans of all sorts of celebrities and Star Athletes that are interested in knowing and these Celebs/Sport Stars are interested in tweeting what they may be doing most hours of the day. Is this the downfall of our society? Well, it is at least another reason for it. Oh how I long for much calmer days and “Home Tweet Home”.

#4.          Social Web becomes target for hackers: Why do they do it? I don’t know. Some do it for the thrill of the “hack” and some are out to steal our identity. We put too much personal stuff on these social sites. Regulators and privacy advocates have fertile ground for their causes and activities.

#3.          The Twitter revolution in Iran: In June of the last year as Iranian authorities were cracking down on protestors, these same protestors began to twitter their cause, and when the foreign correspondents were thrown out, became the only source of hard data on what was really happening in the country. Corbin reports that the US State Department convinced the people at Twitter to postpone a planned power outage for scheduled maintenance just so they would keep the twitter lines of communication open.

#2.          The growing sense of urgency about information:  It seems that everything is about immediacy. We’ve got to have it real-time. 

And the #1 important issue that materialized last year relating to Social and Digital Media was VIDEO: The web is free and on-demand. How does one derive a business model out of that? TV Everywhere offers paying subscribers the option to watch content on the web. Hulu pulls content from sites, and its owner News Corp is thinking about making it a paid site. So is free TV over the air waves supported by its advertising (i.e. commercials) a thing of the past?

 

 

Will Microsoft Emerge from the Economic Meltdown a Winner?

 

If you read Mike Elgan’s article in InternetNews.com, Get Ready for Microsoft’s Big Comeback, you will see that the answer is yes. If the Tech Industry doesn’t have any bailout money foisted upon it, much unlike our banking industry, then this market will do what all markets do in a capitalistic system, i.e. only the strong will survive. That is really what an efficient marketplace does with its competitors. But enough about me griping about the impending fascist state of this administration and in particular the all powerful Timothy Geithner. Let’s get back to Microsoft. Read Elgan’s article. He foresees the impending shakeout in the Tech industry and recognizes that the weak players will fade away and some marginal players will be swallowed up by bigger players. He also takes note of the past miscues in Microsoft’s marketing, the ever unpopular VISTA operating system, and its’ much ballyhooed legal struggles.

Although he mentions it in the subtitle to his article, it takes Elgan a while to get to the pile of cash that Microsoft has been hording. So let’s deal with the 800 pound gorilla in the room first before we get to the nuances of Windows 7 and Microsoft’s plan to leverage it and reclaim its’ reputation and continue to dominate the marketplace. Cash is King. Microsoft has an estimated $20 billion in cash on hand just waiting to exploit a downturn in the market. As for survival and emerging as the dominate player after the current economic struggle, see paragraph one above regarding “only the strong will survive”. Elgan posits that Microsoft could buy Yahoo, Facebook, Twitter, and Hulu all in the same year. He doesn’t predict such a sweeping acquisition scheme, but he does recognize the coming consolidation in the industry and that the cash-rich enterprises will act in their best interests and flourish.

And now for the nuances to their reemergence, Elgan sees Windows 7 as the vehicle Microsoft will use to recapture the glory days of the pre-1990’s debacles. It is not so much a four-step approach; but rather Elgan sees four categories where Windows 7 will dominate:

1.       Netbooks: Mobile computing will kick into high gear. As Windows XP eventually will fade into the sunset, Windows 7 Operating System will be the operating system of choice and not the much beleaguered VISTA.

 

2.       Touch Screens: The transition from mouse, icon, and menu to the mouseless touch will be slow, but Windows 7 is poised to take advantage when the switch gets into high gear.

 

3.       Gaming: Growth in this sector will be exponential. Four categories to watch are i) console, ii) cell phones, iii) internet, and iv) desk top. Microsoft will dominate in 3 of the 4 categories, bowing only to Apple in the cell phone arena.

 

4.       64-bit Computing: Office 11 will ship next year in a 64 bit version and Windows 7 will provide the power boost needed for fast business computing.

 

Micorsoft Bids $44.6 Billion for Yahoo

My stated purpose for this Blog is to discuss current developments in the software industry and other nuances that may affect the industry. I do not intend to become a daily reporter, but when something big happens in the industry I believe I should include it in this Blog as a service to my readers. I did such a post yesterday, January 31st ,regarding the cut undersea cables affecting the bandwidth in India see post on 1/31/08. And now this:

MSNBC has picked up an Associated Press story regarding Microsoft’s bid to purchase Yahoo, the search engine pioneer. The complete story follows:

BREAKING NEWS

REDMOND, Wash. - Microsoft Corp. is offering $44.6 billion in cash and stock for search engine operator Yahoo Inc. in a move to boost its competitive position in the online services market.

The unexpected announcement Friday comes as Microsoft, the world's biggest software company, seeks new ways to compete more effectively against the search and online advertising powerhouse Google Inc.

In a letter to Yahoo's board of directors, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said the company will bid $31 per share, representing a 62 percent premium to Yahoo's closing stock price Thursday, and emphasized that the deal isn't subject to financing.

"In February 2007, I received a letter from your chairman indicating the view of the Yahoo board that "now is not the right time from the perspective of our shareholders to enter into discussions regarding an acquisition transaction," Ballmer wrote.

"According to that letter, the principal reason for this view was the Yahoo board's confidence in the ‘potential upside’ if management successfully executed on a reformulated strategy based on certain operational initiatives, such as Project Panama, and a significant organizational realignment."

"A year has gone by, and the competitive situation has not improved," Ballmer added.

Under terms of the proposed deal, Yahoo shareholders could choose to receive cash or Microsoft common shares, with the total purchase consisting of 50 percent each cash and stock.

Microsoft said it sees at least $1 billion cost savings generated by the merger and intends to offer significant retention packages to Yahoo engineers, key leaders and employees. The software giant said it believes the takeover would receive regulatory clearance and close in the second half of 2008.

© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.